The economist, Michel Kozha, explains, “The stability of the dollar exchange rate during this stage is due to the main reason that the Governor of the Banque du Liban and the government agreed on the dollarization of the economy, which affected all sectors, which weakened the people’s confidence in the Lebanese pound, and there became almost complete dollarization, which leads to Until the lira becomes out of circulation.
According to this policy, “the demand for the lira no longer exists, as Kozha says, and in this way dollars were withdrawn from homes little by little, just as the lira is no longer used for dollarization, because withdrawals in banks lost their value, as the “hierarchy” reached 85% in relation to real dollar.
So, Qazha has come up with 3 reasons that contributed to the stability of the dollar at this stage, which are:
First: comprehensive dollarization
Second: The Banque du Liban no longer buys dollars from the market as it should
Third: money exchange.
Qazha points out that “the Central Bank today costs money from the reserve and it does not show it in the budget, and previously we used to see it within the external reserves decreasing, or today the reserves have been stagnant for about two months, and on the other hand we see the central debt through the budget is constantly increasing.”
Is it possible that we will witness a sudden rise in the price of the dollar, and for how long will the stability in the price of the dollar continue? Qazha believes that “if the official withdrawal price is moved from 15 to 30 thousand, the dollar in the parallel market will return to a significant increase.”
The economist, Michel Qazha, speculates, “The possibility of the dollar declining to approximately 70,000, in the event that a new president of the republic is elected, as we may at that time witness an improvement in the exchange rate of the dollar as a result of the sale of dollars by speculators, due to the positive psychological factor that will play a major role.”
