The entry into force of the ceasefire ended another round of fighting between Israel and Gaza. This time too, as in the last rounds, it was an operation against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Organization (GAP) in Gaza, the weakest of Israel’s enemies, but still one that has gained enough strength to paralyze the entire south. A terrorist organization that has no logic and responsibility of a governing body or A state, like Hamas.
It is important to note that this was a mandatory operation. Israel had no choice and had to hit the GAP in light of their conduct in recent years. Indeed, the Shin Bet and the IDF did it in a successful, balanced and measured way. The leadership of the political echelon was correct and in the army there are quite a few factors that positively note the conduct of the statesmen in the chambers the closed ones
Six senior Islamic Jihad operatives were killed in targeted countermeasures based on impressive intelligence and high capabilities of the Israeli security system. The IDF hit the terrorist organization hard and there is no doubt about that.
At the same time, things need to be put in the right proportions: it was just another operation in a series of operations without a special achievement, which could not have been achieved anyway given the situation. The goals (not really published) were limited. The very purpose of the operation was to use a hammer on the GAP, the same thwarting of the seniors that was mentioned.
In advance, Israel did not declare an action that would dramatically change the reality vis-a-vis Gaza and bring years of peace, but instead set out to target a group of activists who led the shooting from Gaza towards Israeli settlements in recent times.
How long is silence expected to last in the south?
How long the peace will last is a question that has no answer and it does not really depend on the operation. As mentioned, GAP is an organization whose logic is different, they do not have the responsibility of a governing body like Hamas and they are controlled, on the basis of interests, of course, by Iran. That is why it is not possible to build deterrence against them, when even then it is an elusive concept.
GAP suffered heavy blows, among other things, in its rocket stockpile, also because of the scope of the shooting and in addition because of attacks on launchers, production centers and rocket warehouses. To this must be added the activists who were killed or injured. And despite all this, these are blows that they witnessed from the moment Israel began to attack. There were no Here are moves that were not made in previous operations. It can be estimated that the quiet period will be long according to the time it will take for them to renew their stockpiles of rockets and mortar bombs.
How does Hamas get out of this round?
Israel’s biggest problem is the “success” that left Hamas out of the fighting round, at least in terms of firing rockets, because Hamas did help Jihad logistically and more. This success is actually a problem because the so-called Israeli fear of Hamas strengthened their position.
The impression is created that Israel is deterred by Hamas as it is deterred by Hezbollah, and in Gaza they understand this very well. In addition, unlike in the past, Israel removed from them the responsibility for everything that happens in the Strip. Hamas, for its part, acted this way mainly out of its own interest, it suited it that the jihad would be weakened and would not try to challenge it as the leading organization in the Gaza Strip.
The next test will be already on Thursday, when the flag parade will take place in Jerusalem. Even if it goes quietly, everyone knows that the next round against Gaza is only a matter of time, and probably not much time. The IDF believes that the threat of a multi-arena campaign – that is, on additional fronts such as the North, Judea and Samaria – has not yet been removed. One small operation in Gaza does not necessarily indicate a disconnection between the arenas.
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