The World Bank expects officially recorded remittances flows to low and middle income countries to increase by 4.2% this year to reach $630 billion, following an almost record recovery of 8.6% in 2021, this came in the latest World Bank Migration and Development Briefing.
Remittances to Ukraine, the largest recipient in Europe and Central Asia, are expected to rise by more than 20% in 2022, but remittance flows to many Central Asian countries, of which Russia is the main Source, are likely to decline significantly.
These declines, combined with rising food, fertilizer and oil prices, are likely to increase food security risks and exacerbate poverty rates in many of these countries..
Commenting on this, Michal Rutkowski, Global Director of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank, said: “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused humanitarian crises, migration and refugee exodus, and widespread risks to a global economy that is still dealing with the repercussions of the Corona pandemic.” Strengthening social protection programs to protect the most needy, including Ukrainians and families in Central Asian countries, as well as those affected by the economic effects of war, is a key priority to protect people from the risks of food insecurity and increasing poverty..”
During 2021, remittance inflows registered a strong improvement in Latin America and the Caribbean (25.3%), Sub-Saharan Africa (14.1%), Europe and Central Asia (7.8%), the Middle East and North Africa (7.6%), and South Asia (6.9%). ). But remittances to East Asia and the Pacific fell by 3.3%; Although it increased when China was excluded by 2.5%. Excluding China, remittance flows have been the largest Source of external financing for low- and middle-income countries since 2015.
The top five recipients of remittances in 2021 were India, Mexico (which replaced China), China, the Philippines, and Egypt. Among the economies with very high remittance flows of GDP were: Lebanon (54%) and Tonga (44%) ), Tajikistan (34%), the Kyrgyz Republic (33%), and Samoa (32%).
“On the one hand, the Ukraine crisis has shifted global policy attention away from other developing regions and from economic migration,” said Dilip Ratha, senior author of the Migration and Development Report and Chair of the Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development. On the other hand, the crisis reinforced the case for support for destination communities As the international community prepares to meet at the International Migration Review Forum, serious consideration should be given to establishing a program of concessional financing facilities to support migration to assist communities of destination. This program could also provide financial support to communities of origin experiencing migration Back during the Corona crisis.”
Globally, the average cost of sending $200 was 6% in the fourth quarter of 2021, double the SDG target of 3%, according to the World Bank’s database of global remittance prices. The costs of sending money to South Asian countries (4.3%) are the lowest, while the cost of sending to Sub-Saharan Africa (7.8%) is the highest..