Macron in front of a different pluralistic map | Muhammad Al-Saeed Idris

Macron in front of a different pluralistic map | Muhammad Al-Saeed Idris
Macron in front of a different pluralistic map | Muhammad Al-Saeed Idris

Dr.. Muhammad Al-Saeed Idris

Contrary to all the wishes and expectations of French President Emmanuel Macron after winning a second presidential term last April, the result of the second round of legislative elections that took place last Sunday was very frustrating, as it will be difficult for him to implement his new agenda for governance, whether related to reforms. Internal politics or what is related to managing French foreign policy in the face of the tempestuous repercussions of the Ukrainian war, the formulation of the new European defense policy and the future of European-Russian and European-American relations.
Macron suffered a major political setback by losing the absolute majority that would enable him to rule, as his electoral bloc “Together” obtained only 245 seats out of the total number of seats in the National Assembly, which is 577, and he had to obtain a minimum of 289 seats to be able to of judgment. What exacerbates the danger of the new political map in the French parliament after the results of these elections are announced, is the presence of two contradictory heads of the opposition, one left and the other right.
The left-wing opposition, which is formed from the left-wing bloc called the “New Populist, Social and Environmental Union” led by former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, which consists of the “Rebellious France” party and the socialist, communist and environmental parties, and has won 150 seats in Parliament and imposed itself as the first opposition, although This result did not achieve what Melenchon aspired to obtain an absolute majority and then impose himself as prime minister, but he is aware of the value of the results he has achieved in relation to the new ruling equation, as revealed by his comment on those results by saying that his alliance “brought Macron from his throne by He deprived him of obtaining an absolute majority,” considering that “the election results represent a retaliation against him (Macron) and his superior method of rule.”
The second strong opposition bloc is the far-right “National Rally” bloc led by Marine Le Pen. This assembly won 89 seats, which made observers describe this result as a “biggest win” compared to the number of its seats in the previous legislative elections of 2017, which did not exceed 7 seats, which made Le Pen comment on this result by saying that her new parliamentary bloc ” She is by far the most numerous in the history of our political family.”
There is no doubt that this result will enable Le Pen to return strongly to the political front again, after her defeat by Macron in the presidential run-off and obtaining 42% of the vote. Therefore, Jordan Bardella, the acting head of the National Rally, commented on these results, which he described as a “tsunami” and said that “a blue wave is all over the country.” This means that President Macron not only lost a majority in the French parliament; He is also facing fierce opposition led by two former presidential candidates who competed with him for his place in the Elysee.
Perhaps this is what made French Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne describe the election results as “a danger to the country.” But the most exciting comment came in the pages of the Financial Times, that “Macron is falling to the ground after losing control of Parliament.”
How can President Macron live with this “ferocious” pluralism in Parliament, and with whom will he ally himself to obtain the absolute majority required as a minimum for governance?
Minister Gabriel Athal described the election results as “far from what we had hoped for,” and said, “An unprecedented situation is emerging in political and parliamentary life, which will force us to transcend our constants and divisions.”
An opinion poll conducted last week revealed that an overwhelming majority of French (70%) do not favor Macron obtaining an absolute majority that would enable him to implement his electoral program and promises. It is also noteworthy in this poll that the French people did not support the ambitions of Melenchon, the leader of the leftist coalition, to obtain an absolute majority that would enable him to rule.
It is likely that President Macron will reject the option of cohabitation and that he will seek an alliance with parliamentary parties closer to his political project and the centrist bloc closest to the right, and perhaps the most likely for such a partnership is the right-wing Republican Party, which has 61 seats, and is able to provide a quorum of an absolute majority for the government that will be forced to rule. Within the framework of a new highly complex pluralistic political equation.
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The article is in Arabic

Tags: Macron front pluralistic map Muhammad AlSaeed Idris

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