Because of the virtual world where he controls a counter theLikes andthe“Share” and retweet in shaping the “virtual” public opinion. The shock of the Turkish opposition was great, even very great, after the results of the real-world polls, as everything they built in the virtual world of inevitable victory scenarios contradicted that feeling that was reinforced by the “politicized” opinion polls. Which gave Kemal Kilicdaroglu a guaranteed and comfortable victory, in one of them reaching 60%, with a guarantee of control over Parliament.
Rather, the step went further than that, as Miral Aksnar, the head of the Good Party, declared herself prime minister, which implies that a constitutional referendum to change the current system of government from the presidential to the parliamentary is also guaranteed, but it became clear later that all of this was nothing but a fantasy that soon fell in love. .
The presidential elections go to a second round, but the candidate of the Public Alliance, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leads the race with more than 27 million votes, with a rate of 49.50.%His opponent, the candidate of the Ummah Alliance, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, came next with about 24,500,000 votes, with a rate of 44.89.% That is, a difference of nearly two and a half million votes.
As for the parliamentary elections, the surprise was more and more severe, as the People’s Alliance reaffirmed its dominance in Parliament with 322 seats!!
The details of the scene are many and complex, but let us, in this article, learn how Erdogan succeeded in leading his alliance towards this important achievement? And how the opposition failed despite the problems all of which that surrounded the government? And you could not remove Erdogan and his government despite their twenty-one years in power? This long period prompts voters in many countries to search for change.
Erdogan.. and internalized the experience of many years
Erdogan entered the election campaign, armed with decades of experience in politics since he was a young man. During which he gained huge experience, in addition to his personal abilities that qualified him to lead Turkey in the darkest circumstances to safety, the most famous of which was the night of the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016, so how did he manage his election campaign?
1- Early preparation for the elections, perhaps at least a year ago, even the disaster of the February 6 earthquake, which left nearly 50,000 dead and widespread destruction of buildings and infrastructure in 10 states, did not affect those preparations, it may have affected the details, but in the end it was knows what to do? And how will the campaign go to gain more votes every day? Opposite of opposition as we shall see.
2- Controlling the electoral competition in terms of defining and arranging priorities, as it benefited from the major strategic mistakes of its opponents, to prevent them from employing the economic file in the competition, and succeeded in placing the file of alliance with terrorism at the forefront of the scene, which led to gaining different groups of the Turkish people around it.
3- The good employment of the local Turkish industries, especially in the field of defense, for no one hears like one who sees, as it gave the people the opportunity to see these industries from up close. This angered an opposition journalist, and he said angrily in one of the television interviews: “What happened to the people as if they were seeing cars for the first time in their lives?” As for the largest popular celebration, it was for the warship, the drone carrier TCG, which opened its doors to citizens in Istanbul and Izmir, to enter and board it and watch the marches and helicopters, as queues of citizens lined up for kilometers. severalWhich represented good publicity for Erdogan, as it proved the falseness of the previous allegations of the opposition, in which it claimed that these achievements are just “makeups” and do not exist in reality.
4- Attention to the youth segment and its success in making an important breakthrough in their ranks, contrary to what the media promoted inside and outside Turkey, that this generation will be a reason for the loss of Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party, because it is a generation that did not see old Turkey, and therefore does not feel gratitude towards Erdogan and is not Captive of his experience, and this age group tends to change and experiment and is dominated by impulsiveness, but what happened was not the case and it became clear that an important segment of those who voted for the first time had decided in favor of Erdogan, and in my estimation the popularity of the director of the Baykar Company for marches, Seljuk Bayraktar, It contributed to the adhesion of this age group to Erdogan, considering that Selçuk, with his broad achievements in the field of drones, is one of the most important products of the Erdogan era and an important icon of that era.
5- The stimulus packages granted by Erdogan to multiple segments of the Turkish people (youth – employees – merchants – retirees), in order to mitigate the effects of inflation and economic decline.
6- The election results also showed the government’s success in dealing with the catastrophe of the devastating earthquake that struck 10 states on February 6, as those states gave their confidence to Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party, even the state of Hatay, in which Kilicdaroglu advanced. The progress was not decisive, as the difference between them is less. Only half a percent.
Strategic mistakes of the opposition
The opposition made catastrophic strategic mistakes that led it to the situation it is in now, namely:
1- The turbulent beginning of the election process, where the dispute broke out between the head of the Good Party, Miral Aksnar, and the rest of the members of the table at the March 2 meeting due to the agreement on the candidacy of the head of the Republican People’s Party, Kamal Kilicdaroglu, and she left the meeting angry and described the alliance as a gambling table, and was subjected to a torrent of attacks and accusations. Disgraced by loyalists to the People’s Party, before she returned to the table after 3 days and approved Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, but the scene left bad effects on public opinion.
2- The exaggerated overconfidence that was based on opinion polls that Kilicdaroglu and his allies know are politicized, unreal, and artificial to influence public opinion.
3- The alliance with the Peoples’ Democratic Party, which is known for its clear and strong links with the terrorist Workers’ Party organization, which has been engaged in an armed confrontation with the state for more than 40 years, leaving nearly 40,000 civilian and military deaths. cooperation with terrorism.
4- The undisciplined political discourse that underestimated the pillars of Turkish national security, and did not take into account any sensitivities, so the promises were to withdraw the army from northern Iraq and Syria, stop military operations against terrorist organizations, and withdraw Turkish forces from Libya without regard to the importance of their presence to preserve the maritime border demarcation agreement that Turkey was granted the right to search for gas in the eastern Mediterranean, and those promises affiliated with the opposition went to the destruction of the Justice and Development and National Movement parties, while others confirmed the release of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, and the leaders of the Peoples’ Party, led by Salah al-Din Demirtas and Yevgen Yuksakdag, despite Judicially convicted of calling for protests that led to the killing of more than 50 citizens in 2014.
5- Targeting major achievements, foremost of which are the defense industries that are respected by the people, especially the march industry, which turned the young Selcuk Bayraktar into an icon of Turkish youth, but the leaders of the six-party table blasphemed against the current, and their statements that varied between the promise of nationalizing the company to accusing the company of obtaining grants government, accusing it of monopolizing the march industry at the expense of competition!! Although the police were the ones who made a name for Turkey in the world of making marches, and before that they were captive to the Israeli industries.
6- Kılıçdaroğlu’s speech conflicted between the nationalist, the conservative, and the supporter of the “Kurdish” Peoples’ Democratic Party and its separatist project, according to the audience of those addressed.
The consequences of the results.. Do the parties listen to the demands of the people?
Although the Public Alliance maintained a majority in parliament, the clear retreat of the Justice and Development Party cannot be ignored. It alone won 267 seats, compared to 295 seats in the previous session, i.e. losing 28 seats, and this is a large percentage, even if it was expected before.
Party spokesman Omar Celik was quick to confirm that the party had absorbed the voter’s message, and would proceed to implement it.
Therefore, it is expected that the coming period will witness a movement of change and the infusion of new blood into the party in preparation for the municipal elections next year, if it wants to regain the major cities it lost in the previous elections.
However, it is not expected that these expected and necessary changes will cause any problems within the party in the presence of its leader and founder Erdogan.
On the contrary, the coalition parties achieved great successes, whether they ran in the elections on an independent list, or those that nominated members from them on the list of the Justice and Development Party.
The Nationalist Movement Party increased the number of its seats from 49 to 50, while the Welfare Party, headed by Fatih Erbakan, managed to win 5 seats again, in an important breakthrough for the party. As for the Kurdish Islamist Hada Bar Party, its four candidates who were on the Justice and Development lists were able to win. . The alliance appeared to be inspired by Erdogan’s “everyone is a winner” principle.
But on the other side, the Republican People’s Party will have a date with strategic and profound changes that may undermine its stability, although it may be postponed until the end of the second round of the presidential elections.
Any loss for Kilicdaroglu will mean his political end on the night the results appear itself, Some people now hold him responsible for the poor results, especially at the level of Parliament. The number of party seats decreased from 169 to 146, of which 36 seats went to the Progress and Change parties headed by Ali Babacan (15), the Future Party headed by Davutoglu (9), and Happiness (9). And the Democratic Party (3), meaning that what the People’s Party actually won was 113 seats, the worst performance in many years. These numbers sparked a wave of anger within the party, as many considered that Kilicdaroglu had committed a great foolishness, as he granted conservative right-wing parties gains that they had not dreamed of without any significant return!
Also, his alliance with the Peoples’ Democratic Party – which ran in the elections under the name of the Green Left Party – did not give him what he had hoped for in terms of voting support that would give him the presidential seat in the first round, but rather a deduction from his public balance.
The party’s failure extended to managing the scene on the night of the elections, as everyone followed the exit of the mayors of Ankara and Istanbul, Mansur Yavas, and Ekrem Imamoglu, and their announcement of Kilicdaroglu’s progress, and attacked Anadolu Agency and the results it broadcasts, quoting the Supreme Electoral Commission, while Kilicdaroglu announced in a tweet at eight o’clock. Only six minutes offer results! But the party quickly rectified the matter and announced its commitment to the official results.
The chaos was not only in the media, but extended to following up the counting of votes from within the party. The Turkish journalist Bahar Fayzan, who covered the elections from inside the party’s headquarters, went out in a video clip to describe the situation that night as bad, saying: If Erdogan ran 10 additional elections, he would win them.
Although the final account was postponed until after the end of the second round, Kılıçdaroğlu quickly and overthrew a number of party leaders who were responsible for managing the elections, blaming them for the chaos that struck the party and tarnished its image with public opinion.
And in conclusion
While global public opinion is still engrossed in the scene of the wide participation of voters, which amounted to about 87%, and the high professionalism with which state institutions managed the polling operations, then sorting, leading to the announcement of the results smoothly and smoothly without any accusations or even objections, the Turkish interior is still motivated Waiting for the results of the run-off, as the remaining period is short and every hour counts, and it would be too early to say whether this candidate will win or lose.