Scenarios for the next 24 hours in the Turkish elections 2023

Scenarios for the next 24 hours in the Turkish elections 2023
Scenarios for the next 24 hours in the Turkish elections 2023

Dr.. Ali Hussein Bakir – Arabic 21

The Turkish elections are the talk of the world these days. At the end of Sunday, May 14, 2023, the results will have appeared if there is no hitch. In the last hours before the start of the elections, events develop rapidly and surprises multiply, the latest of which is the withdrawal of the presidential candidate, Muharram Ince, after a hate campaign and pressure on him by the opposition coalition. Who believed that his presence leads to the division of votes that are supposed to go to him. This coincided with the promotion of a fabricated recording of Ince, which he said was attributed to him by the opposition alliance and Fethullah Gulen, while the opposition claimed that Russia was behind him.

In such an atmosphere charged with propaganda, the election results remain open to all possibilities without exception. It is difficult to enter into the game of expectations, and in light of the massive Western media support for one party at the expense of another in the Turkish elections, the game of expectations becomes more murky. In general, in the presidential elections there is a scenario of Erdogan winning or Kilicdaroglu winning, and the same applies to the majority of parliament, either you go to power again, or you go to the opposition.

The Western media and the Turkish opposition, abroad and at home, have been aggressively promoting the possibility of Kilicdaroglu’s victory in the first round during the last month. Although we mentioned that surprises are possible, and that the scene is open to all possibilities, this scenario is probably the most difficult and least likely scenario. However, due to the huge propaganda and unlimited support of the Turkish opposition in the Western media, the opposition raised its expectations unrealistically, as the united opposition candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, stated that he would receive 60 percent of the votes in the first round.

If Kilicdaroglu wins, it will be by a very small margin, and if the opposition wins in parliament in such a scenario, it will completely control the presidency and parliament, and this will give it broad executive and legislative powers, and it will establish a comprehensive revolution in Turkish domestic and foreign policies. Of course, the internal problems will not end, and may even increase, especially since the opposition does not carry a clear agenda and does not agree on anything now except for the overthrow of Erdogan and power-sharing. On the external level, the general picture will be to take Turkey towards the West, and fully join the American and European policies. In other words, Turkey will be just a functional subordinate. This is not an expectation, but a conclusion based on the statements of the opposition itself.

In the second scenario, Erdogan wins the Turkish presidency. Although opinion polls indicated during the past month that the opposition candidate was ahead of Erdogan, the latter managed, during the past two weeks, to rearrange his situation and move from defense to attack in his election campaign, armed with a number of initiatives, in addition to the mistakes that the opposition made, which is Which increased his balance again at the expense of the opposition candidate. Most of the polls in recent days have favored Erdogan over Kılıçdaroğlu, and while noting that most of the opinion polls in Turkey are not credible, the observer can notice through the crowds of Erdogan and his opponents that he has reproduced the popular momentum supporting him, which may help him to Pass the difficult exam from the first round.

If the Public Alliance wins in this scenario, the Justice and Development Party will once again have the upper hand in the executive and legislative branches, and this will allow President Erdogan to complete his project on the internal and external levels at a very difficult time. The challenges will not go away easily, but the overthrow of the opposition in this battle will give great impetus and legitimacy to the path it has taken. Such a victory will undoubtedly have great repercussions on the opposition, its structures, officials, and agenda, and thus this victory may reshape a completely different opposition.

In the third scenario, one of the two camps wins the presidency while the other camp wins the parliamentary majority. This scenario is possible, of course, and perhaps the opposition camp winning the parliament in exchange for the power camp winning the presidency, is more likely than the reverse scenario, which assumes the opposition winning the presidency and the power in Parliament. But regardless, this scenario means that there is also a division and difference between the executive authority and the legislative authority.

This scenario will undoubtedly cause problems in the administration of the state, but the upper hand will be for whoever wins the presidency. Given the broad powers enjoyed by the president in the presidential system. There is also another form of this scenario, which is that coexistence takes place between the two parties in the presidency and parliament, and although the possibilities of such a matter are slim, none of the scenarios can be ruled out at this moment.

There is also a scenario of questioning the election results and/or chaos. Western media, as well as the Turkish opposition, are trying to focus on a hypothetical scenario that says; Erdogan will not leave power if he is defeated, although historical experience says; The main team in the other camp has for decades led one-party politics, supported military coups, exercised all forms of oppression and domination over the vast majority of Turks, closed down parties and prevented the democratic process from taking its course.

In parallel with this scenario, there is a prior campaign by these parties to question the integrity and fairness of the elections, even their mechanism of action and the results that may result from them, and it appears as a pre-emptive attempt to justify a possible defeat or even not recognizing the possible defeat. Such a matter may lead to a state of chaos, which may begin with questioning the election results and end with questioning the legitimacy of the result, and what may result from that in terms of internal conflict, chaos, political instability and violence.

Whatever the outcome of the elections, it will undoubtedly greatly affect the future of Turkey and the path it will take, which may have an impact on the regional environment and Turkey’s foreign relations.. Another day and we will know the results.

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