The United Nations said Wednesday that “there is a probability of… 98% to be at least one of the next five years, or even the entire five-year period, warmest ever“.
The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, Petteri Taalas, warned that the period extending from 2023 until 2027 It will almost certainly be the hottest period the planet has ever seen, with the combined effect of greenhouse gases and the El Nino weather phenomenon driving up temperatures.
The World Meteorological Organization has also warned that global temperature will soon exceed the most ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement.
The probability that the annual global mean surface temperature exceeds B1,5 Celsius, the level recorded before the industrial revolution during at least one of the next five years, then its percentage 66% by organization.
The Paris Agreement on the climate concluded general 2015 that the signatory countries limit climate warming to a maximum of two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial rates in the mid-nineteenth century, and to1,5 degrees Celsius if possible.
Petteri Taalas stressed in a statement that the figures published Wednesday “do not mean that we will permanently cross a threshold 1,5 degrees Celsius of the Paris Agreement, which indicates prolonged warming over several years.
He added, “However, the World Meteorological Organization is sounding the alarm by announcing that the threshold 1,5 Celsius will be exceeded temporarily, and with greater frequency.
“It is expected that the El Niño phenomenon will develop in the coming months. Together with human-caused climate change, this phenomenon will raise global temperatures to unprecedented levels,” he added.
He stressed the need to prepare because the repercussions of this “on health, food security, water management and the environment will be great.”
El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon generally associated with high temperatures, increased drought in some parts of the world, and heavy rains in other regions.
This phenomenon occurred the last time in 2018-2019 And in its place was a long round of El Niña, which causes the opposite effects, especially the drop in temperatures.
Despite this moderate effect, the past eight years were the hottest on record.
Without El La Niña, climate warming would be even worse.
In early May, the World Meteorological Organization estimated that there is a probability of 60% to form an El Niño phenomenon by the end of July, with a rate of 80% by the end of September.
The effects of El Niño appear on temperatures in the year following the formation of this climatic phenomenon, and its effect is likely to be felt more in the year 2024according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Continuing high temperatures
“Global average temperatures are expected to continue to rise, taking us further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Leon Ermanson, a global expert at Britain’s National Meteorological Service.
This year’s forecasts were issued by the World Meteorological Organization 145 member of 11 different institute.
“Confidence in global average temperature projections is high, because ex post projections reveal that all measures are very reliable,” the organization said.
Global average land and sea surface temperatures have been rising steadily since the 1960s.
The global average land and sea surface temperatures for the year are projected to be 2023 above average between 1991 And2020 In almost all regions of the world, with the exception of Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and some parts of Australia, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Parts of the South Pacific are likely to be colder than average for this part of the Earth.