The nomination of Lebanon’s former ambassador to the United Nations, member of the International Court of Justice, Nawaf Salam, to head the government will not alter the results of the parliamentary consultations that President Michel Aoun is conducting today to nominate the prime minister-designate to form the government, which, in the absence of competition, is in the interest of the caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, who is expected to To be re-assigned with a modest parliamentary majority ranging between 55 and 57 deputies, in exchange for Salam obtaining the support of the “Democratic Gathering” deputies, the “Phalange Party” and a number of deputies belonging to the “October 17th” uprising, 2019. While the white papers are resolved for each of the “Forces” party deputies. Lebanon” and the “Free Patriotic Movement” are in second place after the votes that President Mikati will receive.
Salam’s entry into the race to head the government did not change the reality of the situation in Parliament, in light of the presence of scattered parliamentary majorities that did not agree to unify their supportive stance, and the same applies to the loyalist forces that could not get around Mikati with the departure of the “National Movement” from the consensus with its support, which The Shiite duo led him by forming a lever for him, to which a number of Sunni representatives were added to his side, although some of them are classified as the opposition, and among them are those who revolve in the political orbit of Harirism.
The Sunni deputies who support the re-assignment of Mikati constitute the second force after the strength that the Shiite duo secures for him, and this indicates that most members of the Heads of Government Club expressed their solidarity with Mikati without any communication between them, which is the explanation behind his nomination by the largest number of MPs belonging to to the Sunni community.
Although the “Democratic Gathering” was indicated by Walid Jumblatt, the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, who was the first to nominate Salam, his support for him came as the culmination of internal consultations that began about two weeks ago and ended with tipping the parliamentary balance calling for a battle to form the upcoming government with a change face that he will chair in response. For the popular incubator led by the head of the “gathering” MP Taymour Walid Jumblatt, which decided to deviate from the traditional framework in naming the prime minister in charge of forming the government, in line with the youth movement within the “progressive” movement, which was supported by the old guard led by Jumblatt the father.
The irony was that the “progressive” was the one who led the change called for by the representatives of the popular uprising who did not unite their position to support Salam’s candidacy, after they were divided between a supporter of him and those who would nominate one of its members, Representative Ibrahim Mneimneh, to form the government, in addition to that among these representatives were those who proposed the nomination of A change figure who adheres to the work program they approved weeks after their election. Salam’s candidacy from the Democratic Gathering came in line with Taymour Jumblatt’s pledge that change should start from his unconventional approach to the file of government formation; Especially since the youth movement within the “Progressive” campaign waged a reform and change program.
But the nomination of the Democratic Gathering for Salam does not mean that he prepared the preparations to establish a force in the face of Mikati to block the path to his re-assignment, and this explains why his role is limited to recording a position that remains within the limits of objection without developing towards the parliamentary blocs belonging to the opposition, although he is in contact With the “Lebanese Forces” party on the one hand, and individually with the “Phalange Party” and a number of independent parliamentarians.
A number of Salam’s friends say that the time has not come for him to run for prime minister, not only because he does not have the support of the required parliamentary majority, but also because the remaining period of President Aoun’s term does not allow him to achieve any significant achievement, as long as the decision rests with the head of the Free Patriotic Movement. » Representative Gebran Bassil, who insists that the cabinet line-up will be on his scale, so that he may be able to float himself politically.
They believe that there is nothing wrong with Salam’s specifications, but he does not have to burn his papers instead of waiting for some time to cut the remaining period of Aoun’s term, who will not provide facilities on a silver platter to Mikati unless he surrenders to his conditions, although he knows in advance that the president-designate He will not succumb to Basil’s blackmail. Mikati’s return to prime minister comes against Aoun’s will on behalf of Bassil, after he failed to market an alternative personality to Mikati; Especially since the president-designate is the one who undertakes authorship consultations.
Accordingly, the re-assignment of Mikati to form the government comes in complex political circumstances sweeping the region and the world in conjunction with the accumulation of catastrophic crises besieging Lebanon, so does Aoun abandon the policy of arrogance and denial and humble himself, as a former prime minister says to Asharq Al-Awsat, in order to facilitate his mission, or? That obstructing the formation of the government remains the only option for him, what will take the country to a comprehensive social explosion?