The “hijab protest” in Iran is faltering, and despite its strength, it will probably not lead to the overthrow of the Ayatollahs’ rule in Iran. The current protest wave is a good opportunity for Western countries to try and undermine the extreme Iranian regime, but it seems that the Biden administration is not interested in this.
For more than two months, the wave of demonstrations known as the “hijab protest” that broke out in Iran following the death of the Iranian young woman Mehsa Amini at the hands of the Iranian “morality police” over the claim that she did not properly wear the hijab in such a way as to cover all the hairs of her head, has continued for more than two months.
For more than two months, the wave of demonstrations known as the “hijab protest” that broke out in Iran following the death of the young woman Mehsa Amini at the hands of the Iranian “morality police” over the claim that she did not wear the hijab correctly
According to various human rights organizations, so far more than 400 protesters have been killed in the protests and about 15 thousand others have been arrested, in total more than 200 thousand people have participated in these protests to date.
The current protest wave is part of the protest waves that have hit Iran in recent years against a background of water shortages, demands for women’s rights, food shortages and rising fuel prices.
The demonstrations continue and the Iranian regime accuses the US and Israel of being behind them to bring about a civil war in the country.
The Iranian regime is dealing with internal riots in the country and with external and international isolation, but currently there is no danger that threatens to lead to the fall of the regime.
The Intelligence Division of the IDF estimates that the demonstrations have reached the level of “civil riots” but shares the assessment that there is no danger to the regime now.
The current wave of protests, in which over 400 protesters were killed and another 15,000 were arrested, is part of the waves of protests that have hit Iran in recent years against the background of water shortages, demands for women’s rights, food shortages and rising fuel prices
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei commented a few days ago and estimated that the demonstrations will stop.
“The factors behind the riots failed to drag the people out into the streets, they are trying to continue these actions to put pressure on those responsible, but the demonstrations will stop and the hatred of the Iranian people will increase towards these factors.”
He hinted that Israel was responsible for the protests and added: “The enemy failed despite all his efforts, even though he tried to create problems for Iran, such as imposing a boycott on it and assassinating its nuclear scientists.”
The Iranian leadership displays self-confidence as if the protest is a storm in a teacup that can be quelled. But this is a continuous rage that accumulated for years and erupted due to the repression of the regime that refuses reforms and a process of internal reconciliation.
After two months of protests, the protest wave is faltering despite the large number of protesters.
About half of the participants in the demonstrations are young people and members of ethnic minorities, such as the Kurdish and Baluchi minorities. The participation of women in the demonstrations that focused mainly on universities is notable.
However, the current protest wave does not have a clear leadership with an organized agenda and is not focused on the clear goal of overthrowing the extreme Ayatollah regime.
This is the problem of the hijab protest, which so far, despite its strength, has not been able to move the masses all over Iran to take to the streets and attack the government institutions. The police and Basij forces are so far managing to control the situation.
The decline of the Higab protest will only encourage the Iranian regime to continue its acts of repression. He has no intention of changing his expansionist policy of exporting the Khomeinist revolution through his affiliates in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
The Iranian regime will continue to pour its money into this cause at the expense of the needs of the Iranian people, so the popular indignation will continue to be like embers whispering under the surface until it erupts into a great flame again.
The decline of the “Higab protest” will only encourage the Iranian regime to continue its acts of repression and continue to pour money into the export of the Khomeinist protest at the expense of the needs of the Iranian people, and therefore the popular indignation will continue
The demonstrations of the current protest wave in Iran are spontaneous, and Israel and the US have nothing to do with them. The Iranian regime knows this very well, but it tries to gloss over its failures and accuse Israel and the US of being responsible for the riots.
The Iranian regime has enough military and police power to suppress the riots and eliminate them once the Supreme Leader makes the decision. He may want to do this gradually to allow the protesters to let off steam in the meantime.
It is also impossible to ignore the opportunity that the hijab revolution creates for the Western world to take advantage of the protest wave to shake the Iranian regime from within in order to overthrow it. But the Biden administration still appears wary of such interference.
It is possible that the Biden administration is afraid to intervene out of a desire to preserve the option of returning to talks on the nuclear agreement at some point. This despite the rapprochement between Iran and Russia and the supply of Iranian missiles and UAVs to Russia for the war in Ukraine.
The Iranian regime has enough military and police power to suppress the riots and eliminate them once the Supreme Leader makes the decision. He may want to do this gradually to allow the protesters to let off steam in the meantime
The current wave of protests in Iran is an opportunity for the US and Israel to try and topple the extreme and dangerous Iranian regime. It is impossible to expand on Israeli activity on this issue, but it seems that the Biden administration is not interested in this line of action.
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